Erzgebirge AUE 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzgebirge AUE at 38%, yet in-form 1. FC Heidenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erzgebirgsstadion plays host to Erzgebirge AUE versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Erzgebirge AUE's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Erzgebirge AUE have posted 1W 2D 3L at Erzgebirgsstadion — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 2W 0D 3L from 5 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Erzgebirge AUE goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 58% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 42% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.30 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.705 / defence 1.143 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.694 / defence 1.617. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.372. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.617 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Erzgebirge AUE games / 12 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Heidenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Erzgebirge AUE as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Erzgebirge AUE if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Heidenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.30 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.705 / def 1.143 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.694 / def 1.617 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Erzgebirge AUE (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Erzgebirge AUE 2 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 38% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Erzgebirge AUE the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Erzgebirge AUE's attack rating (0.70) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.69x) against Erzgebirge AUE's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzgebirge AUE Win
38%
2.66
35%
2.83
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.39
1.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.09 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Erzgebirge AUE's recent record stands at 1W 5D 6L from 12 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzgebirge AUE heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Erzgebirge AUE have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.80 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 2, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Erzgebirge AUE have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 60%, 1. FC Heidenheim 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Erzgebirge AUE and 80% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 40% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 80% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Erzgebirge AUE cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.30 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.70 / defence 1.14 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.69 / defence 1.62, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Heidenheim 27%, with Erzgebirge AUE to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 42%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Erzgebirge AUE winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.