Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome SV Sandhausen to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Sandhausen stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 0.90 (SV Sandhausen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, SV Sandhausen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
SV Sandhausen trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% and SV Sandhausen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | SV Sandhausen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.43 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.842 / defence 1.080 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.949 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.295. Data: 30 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 64 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 39% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 35%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | SV Sandhausen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Braunschweig at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | SV Sandhausen 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 39% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.43 / SV Sandhausen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.842 / def 1.080 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.949 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SV Sandhausen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen?
Eintracht Braunschweig 2 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 39% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.84) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
39%
2.53
25%
3.92
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.75
1.33
SV Sandhausen xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.33 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 8D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, SV Sandhausen sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.07 PPG, SV Sandhausen on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Sandhausen have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SV Sandhausen in 60%.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SV Sandhausen away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.40 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 47%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 60% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 33% of games; SV Sandhausen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 60% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out SV Sandhausen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Sandhausen 2-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.43 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 39% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 35%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, SV Sandhausen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 PPG, SV Sandhausen 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.