Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Braunschweig face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Braunschweig at 0.90 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 46% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.759 / defence 0.908 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.020 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.539. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 55 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 21.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.90 | Draw 3.81 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.759 / def 0.908 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.020 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.42
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 55 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
35%
2.90
26%
3.81
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.75
1.42
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.42 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 11D 29L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 9W 15D 31L from 55 games, 0.76 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.02 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 8D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.24 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 15W 11D 29L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 15D 31L in their last 55 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.37 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 44%, SV Darmstadt 98 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 70% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 30% of games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.42 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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