Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 43%, yet in-form Eintracht Braunschweig provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Eintracht-Stadion to face Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 January 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Eintracht Braunschweig. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.00 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Braunschweig lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% and FC St. Pauli 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 53% | FC St. Pauli 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.84 xG and FC St. Pauli 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.940 / defence 1.194 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.023 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. Data: 37 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 4 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 36% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 43%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | FC St. Pauli 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Braunschweig (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 36% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.84 / FC St. Pauli 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.940 / def 1.194 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.023 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
2.01
FC St. Pauli xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Eintracht-Stadion.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 36% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 43% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.02x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
36%
2.76
21%
4.75
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.85
2.01
FC St. Pauli xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
5%
20.61
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 2.01 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 11W 7D 20L from 38 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 21L across 38 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Eintracht Braunschweig against 0.76 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 2W 5D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.92 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 11D 21L in their last 38 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.21 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 63%, FC St. Pauli 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 47% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 53% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 47% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.