Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at SchücoArena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 September 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 0D 1L at SchücoArena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Arminia Bielefeld. A 1.00 PPG lead over SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 60% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 2.12 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.144 / defence 0.978 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.284 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.289. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Arminia Bielefeld games / 39 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 2.12 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.144 / def 0.978 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.284 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 September 2025 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 49% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 3 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 1.14x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.28x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
49%
2.03
21%
4.78
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.73
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
4%
27.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.62 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 2.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking output running into Arminia Bielefeld's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Defensively: Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Arminia Bielefeld or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Arminia Bielefeld and 80% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 80% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 2.12 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.62 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.28 / defence 1.36, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.