1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face SC Paderborn 07.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Current Form

1. FC Nürnberg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.20 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 3–1 SC Paderborn 07 — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 46% versus SC Paderborn 07 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.801 / defence 1.273 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.109 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.340. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 63 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 63.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.84 | Draw 4.20 | SC Paderborn 07 2.00. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.32 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).

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