1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 50%, yet in-form 1. FC Nürnberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Max-Morlock-Stadion to face 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Nürnberg. A 0.60 PPG lead over SSV Jahn Regensburg (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 0W, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 54% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 64% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.17 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.873 / defence 1.385 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.913 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.459. Data: 22 1. FC Nürnberg games / 22 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 21% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.00. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Nürnberg (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 21% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.17 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.873 / def 1.385 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.913 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 21% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 1 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.91x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
21%
4.66
28%
3.55
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.02
1.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
29.53
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.85 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 9L across 22 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.41 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.91 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 64%.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.60 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 60% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 40% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 60% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.17 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 21% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.50 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.