1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 1W 1D 5L from 7 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 2.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.57 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg at MDCC-Arena this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.57 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MDCC-Arena this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 0.57 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Magdeburg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 57% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 86% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.659 / defence 1.460 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.841 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.347. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 1. FC Magdeburg games / 7 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.08. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.659 / def 1.460 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.841 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.65
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Magdeburg 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 28% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.57 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
28%
3.59
24%
4.10
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.65
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
18.79
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.65 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 3L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 0.57 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.29 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86%.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 0.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Magdeburg at 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.65 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.66 / defence 1.46 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 86%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 0.57 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.