1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Hannover 96 travel to MDCC-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 August 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: L W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hannover 96 — 0.65 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 75% and Hannover 96 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 100% | Hannover 96 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.49 xG and Hannover 96 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.802 / defence 1.271 | Hannover 96 attack 1.056 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.274. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 1. FC Magdeburg games / 38 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 34% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Hannover 96 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 75% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 34% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.49 / Hannover 96 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.802 / def 1.271 | Hannover 96 attack 1.056 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 August 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 4 Hannover 96.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 34% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-W-L-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.30
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.20
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.71 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 0.75 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 75%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2022, when Hannover 96 won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
6
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Magdeburg at 75%, Hannover 96 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 75% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 75% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 75% of Hannover 96's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hannover 96 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.49 xG and Hannover 96 1.71 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against Hannover 96 attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 34% | Draw 23% | Hannover 96 43%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 100%, Hannover 96 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hannover 96's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 0.75 PPG, Hannover 96 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hannover 96 scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.