Toulouse 4-1 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Toulouse welcome Sochaux to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Toulouse have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 2D 1L at Stadium de Toulouse — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sochaux — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.70 PPG versus Sochaux's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 47% versus Sochaux 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Toulouse 53% | Sochaux 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.38 xG and Sochaux 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.713 / defence 1.273 | Sochaux attack 0.823 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.997. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.713 — their λ of 1.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Toulouse games / 15 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 28%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Sochaux 3.57. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 57% | Sochaux 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Toulouse 1.38 / Sochaux 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.713 / def 1.273 | Sochaux attack 0.823 / def 0.916 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sochaux xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Sochaux kick off?
Toulouse vs Sochaux kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Sochaux?
Toulouse 4 - 1 Sochaux.
Where is Toulouse vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Sochaux part of?
Toulouse vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 45% chance of winning, Sochaux a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Toulouse and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Sochaux in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.71x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.70
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Sochaux xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.04 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 8W 6D 1L from 15 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 3L across 15 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 2.00 PPG, Sochaux on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sochaux's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.93 scored and 0.53 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Sochaux's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux in 27%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Sochaux in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 8W 6D 1L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Sochaux away?
Toulouse's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.00 PPG; Sochaux away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Sochaux in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Sochaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Sochaux 1-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Sochaux?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sochaux tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 57%, Sochaux 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Toulouse) and 43% (Sochaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sochaux in 43%; Sochaux in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Toulouse's recent matches and 43% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Toulouse's matches and 43% of Sochaux's.
Do Toulouse and Sochaux tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 14% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sochaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Sochaux 4-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.38 xG and Sochaux 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.71 / defence 1.27 against Sochaux attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Sochaux 28%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 53%, Sochaux 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 2.00 PPG, Sochaux 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm. Sochaux (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.