Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Guingamp at Stade Auguste Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sochaux stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sochaux 0.50 PPG, Guingamp 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sochaux have won 3, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.00 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.729 / defence 1.371 | Guingamp attack 0.971 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.114. Sochaux's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Sochaux games / 36 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sochaux 25% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 47%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.13. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Auguste Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 25% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sochaux 1.00 / Guingamp 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.729 / def 1.371 | Guingamp attack 0.971 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Guingamp xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Sochaux vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Stade Auguste Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Sochaux 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Sochaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Guingamp part of?
Sochaux vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 25% chance of winning, Guingamp a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sochaux and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Sochaux 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in?
Sochaux (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.73x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
25%
4.06
28%
3.59
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.48
1.48
Guingamp xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.48 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sochaux come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sochaux — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Sochaux are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Guingamp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Sochaux or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Guingamp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sochaux's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 4, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sochaux's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sochaux's recent games and 50% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Guingamp tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sochaux defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Auguste Bonal, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.00 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.73 / defence 1.37 against Guingamp attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 25% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 47%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sochaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 50%, Guingamp 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Sochaux winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sochaux scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.