Saint Etienne 5-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Bastia meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bastia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Bastia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 70% versus Bastia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Bastia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.95 xG and Bastia 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.739 / defence 1.679 | Bastia attack 1.279 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 2.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Saint Etienne games / 43 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 13% | Draw 18% | Bastia 68%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 7.69 | Draw 5.56 | Bastia 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Bastia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 13% | Draw 18% | Bastia 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Saint Etienne 0.95 / Bastia 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.739 / def 1.679 | Bastia attack 1.279 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Bastia (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
2.36
Bastia xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bastia kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Saint Etienne 5 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bastia part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 13% chance of winning, Bastia a 68% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Bastia in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.28x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 2.36.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
13%
7.55
18%
5.46
68%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.32
2.36
Bastia xG
7.55
13%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
1.46
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
9%
10.63
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
80.25
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.36 for Bastia, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 7W 14D 22L from 43 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 15L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.21 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 4W 7D 10L from 21 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Bastia in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 7W 14D 22L in their last 43 games (0.81 PPG), while Bastia have gone 12W 16D 15L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.90 PPG; Bastia away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Bastia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Saint Etienne, 57% for Bastia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Saint Etienne) and 48% (Bastia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Saint Etienne's games and 57% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Saint Etienne's matches and 48% of Bastia's.
Do Saint Etienne and Bastia tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Bastia 5-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.95 xG and Bastia 2.36 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.74 / defence 1.68 against Bastia attack 1.28 / defence 1.13, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 13% | Draw 18% | Bastia 68%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Bastia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.81 PPG, Bastia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.