Rodez 0-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Valenciennes meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valenciennes's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Valenciennes's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rodez edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Rodez 0–0 Valenciennes — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 50% versus Valenciennes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 35% | Valenciennes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.51 xG and Valenciennes 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.034 / defence 1.033 | Valenciennes attack 0.935 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 0.979. Valenciennes's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 40 games and Valenciennes's last 41.
Result probabilities: Rodez 50% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 24%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.98 | Draw 3.85 | Valenciennes 4.24. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rodez 60% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 50% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rodez 1.51 / Valenciennes 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.034 / def 1.033 | Valenciennes attack 0.935 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.215 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Rodez (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valenciennes xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Valenciennes kick off?
Rodez vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Rodez 0 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Rodez vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Valenciennes part of?
Rodez vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 50% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rodez and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rodez vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.03) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.94x) against Rodez's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 40 games and Valenciennes's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.85
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
Valenciennes xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rodez and 0.94 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 14D 15L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Valenciennes's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Rodez against 1.12 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 19 home games (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 4W 3D 12L from their last 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.08 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
Rodez (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Rodez vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 11W 14D 15L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Valenciennes away?
Rodez's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.16 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won Valenciennes 1-4 Rodez on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rodez
3
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Valenciennes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Valenciennes 0-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Valenciennes?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 63%, Valenciennes 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Rodez) and 37% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 26% of games; Valenciennes in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rodez and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Rodez's recent games and 37% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Rodez's recent matches and 68% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valenciennes defy the odds to beat Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.51 xG and Valenciennes 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Valenciennes attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 50% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 24%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Valenciennes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 35%, Valenciennes 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.18 PPG, Valenciennes 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valenciennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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