Rodez 1-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rodez welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul-Lignon: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.60 (RED Star FC 93). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rodez, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 72% and RED Star FC 93 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 58% | RED Star FC 93 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.94 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.980 / defence 0.940 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.067 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. RED Star FC 93's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Rodez games / 53 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 29% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | RED Star FC 93 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | RED Star FC 93 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 29% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Rodez 0.94 / RED Star FC 93 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.980 / def 0.940 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.067 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.19
RED Star FC 93 xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Rodez 1 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 29% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rodez and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rodez's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
29%
3.48
29%
3.40
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.13
1.19
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Rodez and 1.19 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 15W 20D 18L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 18L across 53 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 10D 8L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.19 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 15W 20D 18L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 18W 17D 18L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Rodez's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.37 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Rodez or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rodez
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 74%, RED Star FC 93 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 48% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 33%; RED Star FC 93 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Rodez's games and 44% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rodez's recent games and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 21, as Rodez and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.94 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 29% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 42%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, RED Star FC 93 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.