Rodez 3-3 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Rodez. A 0.50 PPG lead over Quevilly (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Quevilly in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Rodez 2W, Quevilly 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Quevilly — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 60% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 48% | Quevilly 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.45 xG and Quevilly 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.240 / defence 1.030 | Quevilly attack 1.099 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Data: 67 Rodez games / 68 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Quevilly 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Quevilly 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Rodez 1.45 / Quevilly 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.240 / def 1.030 | Quevilly attack 1.099 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Quevilly xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Quevilly kick off?
Rodez vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Rodez 3 - 3 Quevilly.
Where is Rodez vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Quevilly part of?
Rodez vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 39% chance of winning, Quevilly a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rodez and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.24x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.10x) against Rodez's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.75
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.77
1.33
Quevilly xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rodez and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Rodez and 1.33 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 67 games, going 22W 23D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.15 PPG from 67 outings (17W 26D 24L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rodez against 1.15 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 11W 12D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.18 points per game from 33 outings (9W 12D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 17W 26D 24L in their last 67 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Quevilly away?
Rodez's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.36 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 64%, Quevilly 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rodez) and 42% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 39%; Rodez have failed to score in 27% of games; Quevilly in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Rodez's recent matches and 39% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rodez's recent games and 42% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Quevilly tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Quevilly share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Quevilly finished level at 3-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.45 xG and Quevilly 1.33 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.24 / defence 1.03 against Quevilly attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 39% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 48%, Quevilly 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Quevilly 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.