Rodez 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 37%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against Rodez's 0 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 68% and Guingamp 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 56% | Guingamp 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.945 / defence 0.974 | Guingamp attack 1.156 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.178. Data: 50 Rodez games / 50 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 37% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Rodez 1.33 / Guingamp 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.945 / def 0.974 | Guingamp attack 1.156 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Rodez 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 4 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.94) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.83
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.65
1.33
Guingamp xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rodez and 1.33 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 13W 18D 19L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 19L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.14 PPG, Guingamp on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 8W 9D 8L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 11W 3D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.54 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.32 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 72%, Guingamp at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 60% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Rodez's games and 60% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rodez's matches and 60% of Guingamp's.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.33 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Guingamp attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 37% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 37%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.14 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.