Rodez 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul-Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.50 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rodez, 2 for Dunkerque and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2025, ended 5–1 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 67% versus Dunkerque 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 58% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.05 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.926 / defence 0.991 | Dunkerque attack 1.038 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.214. Data: 48 Rodez games / 48 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 1.05 / Dunkerque 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.926 / def 0.991 | Dunkerque attack 1.038 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dunkerque xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dunkerque kick off?
Rodez vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Rodez 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dunkerque part of?
Rodez vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 31% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Record (6 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
31%
3.23
28%
3.54
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.29
1.25
Dunkerque xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Rodez and 1.25 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 13W 16D 19L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 15L across 48 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 23W 10D 15L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dunkerque away?
Rodez's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.39 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Rodez or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 70%, Dunkerque 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 35% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Rodez's games and 48% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rodez's recent games and 35% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 15, as Rodez and Dunkerque drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.05 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Dunkerque attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.