Rodez 5-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Rodez's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rodez, 2 for Dunkerque and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 65% versus Dunkerque 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 62% | Dunkerque 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.10 xG and Dunkerque 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.964 / defence 1.304 | Dunkerque attack 1.161 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.075. Data: 63 Rodez games / 63 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 50%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.00. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Monday 10 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Rodez 1.10 / Dunkerque 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.964 / def 1.304 | Dunkerque attack 1.161 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Dunkerque xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dunkerque kick off?
Rodez vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 March 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Rodez 5 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dunkerque part of?
Rodez vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 26% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rodez and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
26%
3.88
25%
4.06
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.73
1.63
Dunkerque xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
5%
19.74
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rodez and 1.63 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 22W 18D 23L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 23L across 63 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 13W 9D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.17 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 27W 13D 23L in their last 63 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dunkerque away?
Rodez's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.55 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Rodez or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 68%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Rodez) and 39% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rodez's games and 52% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Rodez's recent games and 39% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Dunkerque 5-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.10 xG and Dunkerque 1.63 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Dunkerque attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 50%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 62%, Dunkerque 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.