Rodez 1-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Annecy's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.90 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rodez, 0 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 58% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 47% | Annecy 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.282 / defence 0.968 | Annecy attack 1.277 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Annecy have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Rodez games / 73 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Rodez 1.56 / Annecy 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.282 / def 0.968 | Annecy attack 1.277 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Annecy xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Rodez 1 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Annecy a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Rodez and Annecy in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.28) and Annecy's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.01
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.97
1.41
Annecy xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Rodez and 1.41 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 25W 24D 23L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 22W 21D 29L from 72 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (13W 13D 10L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 8W 11D 17L from 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 22W 21D 29L in their last 72 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Annecy away?
Rodez's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Rodez go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 61%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 61% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rodez's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 61% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Annecy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Rodez 1-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.41 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Annecy attack 1.28 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 47%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.