RED Star FC 93 vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees PAU travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Bauer — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, RED Star FC 93 have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 3 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus PAU 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | PAU 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.27 xG and PAU 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.943 / defence 1.221 | PAU attack 1.061 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 37 RED Star FC 93 games / 38 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 28% | Draw 27% | PAU 44%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
PAU lead the H2H ledger, but RED Star FC 93 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RED Star FC 93 (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 60% | PAU 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 28% | Draw 27% | PAU 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.27 / PAU 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.943 / def 1.221 | PAU attack 1.061 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: PAU (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.62
PAU xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 28% chance of winning, PAU a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 3W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.94) and PAU's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.64
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
PAU xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
17.78
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.62 for PAU, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 12D 10L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (13W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.58 PPG, PAU on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 7W 8D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while PAU have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or PAU away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.53 PPG; PAU away: 1.53 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, PAU in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 58%, PAU 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RED Star FC 93) and 63% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; PAU in 37%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RED Star FC 93's games and 53% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 63% of PAU's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and PAU tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, PAU in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.