Quevilly 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Quevilly take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rodez (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Quevilly, 0.60 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Rodez and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 45% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 42% | Rodez 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.86 xG and Rodez 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.678 / defence 1.244 | Rodez attack 0.640 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Quevilly games / 31 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 34% | Draw 37% | Rodez 29%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Rodez 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Rodez's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 40% | Rodez 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 34% | Draw 37% | Rodez 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Quevilly 0.86 / Rodez 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.678 / def 1.244 | Rodez attack 0.640 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Rodez xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Rodez kick off?
Quevilly vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Quevilly 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Quevilly vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Rodez part of?
Quevilly vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Quevilly and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.68x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.64x) against Quevilly's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
37%
2.68
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.63
0.77
Rodez xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 15.1 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.77 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 10D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (7W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Quevilly against 1.06 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.81 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 12D 12L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Rodez away?
Quevilly's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.07 PPG; Rodez away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Rodez in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 47%, Rodez 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Quevilly and 27% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Rodez in 33%; Quevilly have failed to score in 47% of games; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Quevilly's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Quevilly's recent games and 27% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Rodez tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Rodez 2-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.86 xG and Rodez 0.77 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.68 / defence 1.24 against Rodez attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 34% | Draw 37% | Rodez 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 42%, Rodez 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.00 PPG, Rodez 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.