Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Quevilly welcome Guingamp to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.20 PPG, Guingamp 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Quevilly, 0 for Guingamp and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 53% versus Guingamp 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 51% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.045 / defence 1.113 | Guingamp attack 0.958 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Data: 57 Quevilly games / 57 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Guingamp 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Quevilly 1.01 / Guingamp 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.045 / def 1.113 | Guingamp attack 0.958 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Guingamp kick off?
Quevilly vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Quevilly vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Guingamp part of?
Quevilly vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 30% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Quevilly and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): Quevilly 2W | Draws 3 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
30%
3.37
30%
3.32
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.24
1.23
Guingamp xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.23 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 22D 20L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 22W 16D 19L from 57 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.18 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.32 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 15W 22D 20L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.29 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
3
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Guingamp?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 64%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Quevilly) and 36% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 39%; Quevilly have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Quevilly's games and 50% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Quevilly's recent games and 36% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Guingamp tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.01 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 30% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 51%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.18 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.