Quevilly 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Quevilly at 35%, yet in-form Amiens provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Quevilly have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Quevilly's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Amiens are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Quevilly 1W, Amiens 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Quevilly winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Amiens 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 57% | Amiens 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.00 xG and Amiens 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.908 / defence 1.280 | Amiens attack 0.760 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 0.974 / away 0.998. Data: 21 Quevilly games / 21 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Quevilly 35% | Draw 31% | Amiens 34%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amiens (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 56% | Amiens 44%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights