PAU 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as PAU take on Nancy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Nancy at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.71 xG and Nancy 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Nancy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 PAU games / 0 Nancy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAU 21% | Draw 41% | Nancy 38%. Fair-value odds: PAU 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Nancy 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 21% | Draw 41% | Nancy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG PAU 0.71 / Nancy 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Nancy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nancy xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Nancy kick off?
PAU vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Nancy?
PAU 2 - 1 Nancy.
Where is PAU vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Nancy part of?
PAU vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 21% chance of winning, Nancy a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAU and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Nancy in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAU's attack rating (0.85) and Nancy's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
PAU xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Nancy xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for PAU and 1.00 for Nancy, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Pre-Season
Nancy
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Nancy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PAU
1
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when PAU 1-3 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Nancy?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Nancy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.71 xG and Nancy 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Nancy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 21% | Draw 41% | Nancy 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.