PAU 1-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Estac Troyes travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PAU, 2 for Estac Troyes and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 50% versus Estac Troyes 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 50% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.976 / defence 1.104 | Estac Troyes attack 0.956 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.191. Data: 46 PAU games / 46 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 39%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG PAU 1.16 / Estac Troyes 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.976 / def 1.104 | Estac Troyes attack 0.956 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Estac Troyes xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Estac Troyes kick off?
PAU vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
PAU 1 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is PAU vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Estac Troyes part of?
PAU vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PAU and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 2 | Estac Troyes 2W.
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.98x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.63
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
PAU xG
Total xG
2.41
1.26
Estac Troyes xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PAU and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for PAU and 1.26 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 16W 15D 15L from 46 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 17L across 46 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.37 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.28 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 16W 15D 15L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 17L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Estac Troyes away?
PAU's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.73 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have PAU or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
PAU
3
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 36%, Estac Troyes 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PAU) and 50% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 36%; PAU have failed to score in 27% of games; Estac Troyes in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PAU's recent matches and 36% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PAU's recent games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Estac Troyes finished level at 1-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 1.26 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 39%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 50%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.37 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.