PAU 2-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in PAU's favour (1.40 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAU 20% and Dijon 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 20% | Dijon 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.21 xG and Dijon 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.125 / defence 0.949 | Dijon attack 0.827 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 PAU games / 5 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 36% | Dijon 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Dijon 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAU 33% | Dijon 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 36% | Dijon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG PAU 1.21 / Dijon 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.125 / def 0.949 | Dijon attack 0.827 / def 1.456 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dijon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dijon kick off?
PAU vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Dijon?
PAU 2 - 0 Dijon.
Where is PAU vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Dijon part of?
PAU vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Dijon in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.83x) against PAU's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.54
36%
2.76
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
PAU xG
Total xG
2.13
0.92
Dijon xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for PAU and 0.92 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, PAU have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 2W 1D 2L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Dijon in 100%.
Defensively: PAU have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dijon in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have PAU or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dijon?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 20%, Dijon 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (PAU) and 80% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 20% of PAU's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAU vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of PAU's recent games and 80% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Dijon tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dijon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Dijon 2-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.21 xG and Dijon 0.92 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dijon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Dijon attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 36% | Dijon 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 20%, Dijon 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dijon's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. That form edge translated into the three points. PAU scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Dijon managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.