Paris FC 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Paris FC welcome PAU to Stade Charléty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Charléty this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.40 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Paris FC, 3 for PAU and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 48% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 46% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.36 xG and PAU 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.048 / defence 1.046 | PAU attack 0.988 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: 61 Paris FC games / 61 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 27% | PAU 32%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
PAU lead the H2H ledger, but Paris FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 27% | PAU 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Paris FC 1.36 / PAU 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.048 / def 1.046 | PAU attack 0.988 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
PAU xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs PAU kick off?
Paris FC vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Paris FC 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Paris FC vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs PAU part of?
Paris FC vs PAU is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 42% chance of winning, PAU a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris FC and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | PAU 3W.
What form are Paris FC and PAU in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.74
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.15
PAU xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.15 for PAU, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 15D 22L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 20W 20D 21L from 61 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.43 PPG, PAU on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L).
On the road, PAU have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and PAU in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 20D 21L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or PAU away?
Paris FC's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.37 PPG; PAU away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Paris FC or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PAU in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Paris FC
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 43%, PAU 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Paris FC) and 43% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 27% of games; PAU in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Paris FC's recent matches and 57% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Paris FC's recent games and 43% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and PAU tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAU in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 24, as Paris FC and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.36 xG and PAU 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 42% | Draw 27% | PAU 32%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 46%, PAU 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.43 PPG, PAU 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.