Paris FC 2-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Guingamp meet at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Charléty — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Paris FC against 1.40 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris FC lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 54% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 49% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.25 xG and Guingamp 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.206 / defence 1.107 | Guingamp attack 1.017 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Data: 43 Paris FC games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 34% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 80% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 34% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Paris FC 1.25 / Guingamp 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.206 / def 1.107 | Guingamp attack 1.017 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Guingamp xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Guingamp kick off?
Paris FC vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Paris FC 2 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Paris FC vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Guingamp part of?
Paris FC vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Paris FC and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Record (6 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.02x) against Paris FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.36
Guingamp xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.36 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 12D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.42 PPG from 43 outings (16W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Paris FC against 1.42 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris FC's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.30 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Guingamp away?
Paris FC's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.85 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 60%, Guingamp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Paris FC) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 45%; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Paris FC's recent matches and 40% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Paris FC's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Guingamp tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Guingamp 2-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.25 xG and Guingamp 1.36 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 34% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 39%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.60 PPG, Guingamp 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.