Paris FC 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Paris FC take on Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Ajaccio meet at MMArena in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at MMArena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MMArena this season.
Ajaccio have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Paris FC, 2.00 for Ajaccio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Paris FC, 1 for Ajaccio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Paris FC 46% | Ajaccio 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 36% | Ajaccio 9%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 0.96 xG and Ajaccio 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.087 | Ajaccio attack 0.787 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 0.983. Data: 22 Paris FC games / 22 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 28%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Ajaccio 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 50% | Ajaccio 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: MMArena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Paris FC 0.96 / Ajaccio 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.032 / def 1.087 | Ajaccio attack 0.787 / def 0.973 | league avg home 0.959 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Ajaccio xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Ajaccio kick off?
Paris FC vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 7 February 2022 at MMArena.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Ajaccio?
Paris FC 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Paris FC vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at MMArena.
What competition is Paris FC vs Ajaccio part of?
Paris FC vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 35% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Paris FC and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Ajaccio in?
Paris FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Ajaccio's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.79x) against Paris FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
37%
2.72
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Paris FC xG
Total xG
1.80
0.84
Ajaccio xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 13.8 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.84 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 5D 5L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Paris FC against 1.91 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris FC's home form reads 5W 4D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.70 points per game from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.95 scored and 0.45 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 14%.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Ajaccio in 68% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 12W 5D 5L in their last 22 games (1.86 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 12W 6D 4L in their last 22 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Ajaccio away?
Paris FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 68%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Paris FC
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Paris FC 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Ajaccio?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Paris FC) and 10% (Ajaccio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Paris FC and 0% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ajaccio in 60%; Ajaccio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Paris FC's recent matches and 10% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Paris FC's recent games and 0% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Ajaccio 2-0 at MMArena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 0.96 xG and Ajaccio 0.84 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajaccio landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Ajaccio attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 35% | Draw 37% | Ajaccio 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 36%, Ajaccio 9%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.86 PPG, Ajaccio 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.