Niort 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade René Gaillard to face Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Niort's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade René Gaillard this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Niort against 0.70 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Niort 1W, Quevilly 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Niort winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 31% versus Quevilly 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 38% | Quevilly 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.17 xG and Quevilly 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.846 / defence 1.054 | Quevilly attack 0.681 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Niort games / 29 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 5.00. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Niort 40% | Quevilly 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Niort 1.17 / Quevilly 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.846 / def 1.054 | Quevilly attack 0.681 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Niort (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Quevilly xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Quevilly kick off?
Niort vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Quevilly?
Niort 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Niort vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Quevilly part of?
Niort vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 48% chance of winning, Quevilly a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Niort and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Niort and Quevilly in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Niort's attack at 0.85x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.68x) against Niort's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.14
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Niort xG
Total xG
1.82
0.65
Quevilly xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Niort and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Niort and 0.65 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Niort come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 6D 13L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Niort against 1.07 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Niort's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Niort are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.83 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Quevilly away?
Niort's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.50 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Niort or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Quevilly in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Niort won 0-3 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Niort
2
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, Quevilly have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Niort 3-3 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Quevilly?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 29%, Quevilly 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Niort) and 50% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 43% of games; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Niort's recent matches and 43% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Niort's recent games and 50% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Quevilly tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.17 xG and Quevilly 0.65 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Quevilly attack 0.68 / defence 1.37, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 38%, Quevilly 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.24 PPG, Quevilly 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.