Niort 4-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Niort take on Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Niort welcome Paris FC to Stade René Gaillard. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Niort — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 5W 1D 3L from 9 outings — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC away from home this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Niort) versus 1.78 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Niort's 0% and Paris FC's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Niort in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Paris FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Niort 22% | Paris FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 33% | Paris FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.83 xG and Paris FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.881 / defence 0.845 | Paris FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Data: 9 Niort games / 9 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 30% | Draw 40% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | Paris FC 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Niort's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 0% | Paris FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 30% | Draw 40% | Paris FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 35% | xG Niort 0.83 / Paris FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.881 / def 0.845 | Paris FC attack 0.959 / def 1.110 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Paris FC xG
35%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Paris FC kick off?
Niort vs Paris FC kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Paris FC?
Niort 4 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Niort vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Paris FC part of?
Niort vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 30% chance of winning, Paris FC a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Niort and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Paris FC in?
Niort (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.88) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.34
40%
2.53
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Niort xG
Total xG
1.67
0.84
Paris FC xG
3.34
30%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 15.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Niort and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Niort and 0.84 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Niort come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Niort — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Niort's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Niort are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.33 scored and 0.78 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Niort have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Paris FC away?
Niort's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.75 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Niort or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Paris FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Niort and Paris FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Niort won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Niort's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Niort
0
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, Paris FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Paris FC 3-0 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Niort 0% BTTS, Paris FC 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Niort and 25% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 50% of games; Paris FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Niort's recent matches and 25% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Niort's recent games and 25% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Niort run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Paris FC 4-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.83 xG and Paris FC 0.84 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Paris FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 30% | Draw 40% | Paris FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 33%, Paris FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Niort winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Niort (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.