Niort 0-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Nimes at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Niort — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Niort's home record at Stade René Gaillard: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nimes have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Niort 0.60 PPG, Nimes 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Niort's 30% rate and Nimes's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Niort have won 1, Nimes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Niort winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 32% versus Nimes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 36% | Nimes 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.19 xG and Nimes 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.917 / defence 0.976 | Nimes attack 0.832 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Niort games / 31 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 44% | Draw 33% | Nimes 23%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Nimes 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Nimes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 44% | Draw 33% | Nimes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Niort 1.19 / Nimes 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.917 / def 0.976 | Nimes attack 0.832 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Niort (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Nimes xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Nimes kick off?
Niort vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Nimes?
Niort 0 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Niort vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Nimes part of?
Niort vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 44% chance of winning, Nimes a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Niort and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 0W.
What form are Niort and Nimes in?
Niort (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Niort's attack at 0.92x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
44%
2.27
33%
3.06
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Niort xG
Total xG
1.97
0.79
Nimes xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Niort and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Niort and 0.79 for Nimes, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 7D 13L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Nimes sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (11W 6D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.29 PPG, Nimes on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Niort's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Nimes have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Nimes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Nimes in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Nimes have gone 11W 6D 14L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Nimes away?
Niort's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.60 PPG; Nimes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Niort or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Nimes in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Niort's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
2
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Nimes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Nimes 3-2 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Niort 27% BTTS, Nimes 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Niort) and 53% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Nimes in 33%; Niort have failed to score in 40% of games; Nimes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Niort's recent matches and 33% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Niort's recent games and 53% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Nimes tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Nimes in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Niort's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 32, as Niort and Nimes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.19 xG and Nimes 0.79 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Niort fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Nimes attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 44% | Draw 33% | Nimes 23%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 36%, Nimes 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.29 PPG, Nimes 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.