Nimes 1-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 37%, yet in-form Bordeaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nimes vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Stade des Costières to face Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nimes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes at Stade des Costières this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nimes are significantly better at Stade des Costières than their overall form suggests.
Bordeaux (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bordeaux arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 49% versus Bordeaux 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 51% | Bordeaux 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.97 xG and Bordeaux 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.833 / defence 0.798 | Bordeaux attack 1.005 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.059. Nimes's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Nimes games / 13 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Bordeaux 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Bordeaux's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bordeaux (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 20% | Bordeaux 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Nimes 0.97 / Bordeaux 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.833 / def 0.798 | Bordeaux attack 1.005 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Nimes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bordeaux xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Nimes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Nimes 1 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Nimes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Bordeaux part of?
Nimes vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 37% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Nimes and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Bordeaux in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nimes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.00x) against Nimes's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
37%
2.71
33%
3.07
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.82
0.85
Bordeaux xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Nimes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Nimes and 0.85 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes's recent record stands at 17W 9D 25L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 21L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Nimes against 1.14 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 9W 5D 11L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.39 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Bordeaux away?
Nimes's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.28 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Bordeaux 1-0 Nimes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 48%, Bordeaux 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Nimes and 76% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 40% of games; Bordeaux in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Nimes's games and 64% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Nimes's matches and 76% of Bordeaux's.
Do Nimes and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nimes edge out Bordeaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Bordeaux 1-0 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.97 xG and Bordeaux 0.85 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Bordeaux attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 37% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 30%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 51%, Bordeaux 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.18 PPG, Bordeaux 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.