Le Mans 4-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Le Mans at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Mans vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees PAU travel to Stade Marie-Marvingt to take on Le Mans. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Mans have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Mans have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stade Marie-Marvingt — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marie-Marvingt. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, PAU have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Le Mans are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Le Mans have won 1, PAU 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Le Mans winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Le Mans in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 54% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Mans 39% | PAU 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 1.16 xG and PAU 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 0.909 / defence 0.791 | PAU attack 1.216 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.152. PAU have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Le Mans's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Le Mans games / 62 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Mans 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 33%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | PAU 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Mans are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Mans offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Mans 30% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Le Mans 1.16 / PAU 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 0.909 / def 0.791 | PAU attack 1.216 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Le Mans (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
1.11
PAU xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Mans vs PAU kick off?
Le Mans vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What was the final score in Le Mans vs PAU?
Le Mans 4 - 0 PAU.
Where is Le Mans vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs PAU part of?
Le Mans vs PAU is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Mans the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Le Mans and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Le Mans vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Le Mans 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 0W.
What form are Le Mans and PAU in?
Le Mans (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Mans's attack at 0.91x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Le Mans's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Mans Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.11
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Le Mans xG
Total xG
2.27
1.11
PAU xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Le Mans and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.11 for PAU, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Mans come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 11D 4L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Le Mans carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of PAU — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Mans's home form reads 7W 5D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.69 points per game from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Mans are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Mans and PAU in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 13W 11D 4L in their last 28 games (1.79 PPG), while PAU have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or PAU away?
Le Mans's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 2.00 PPG; PAU away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Le Mans or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, PAU in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Le Mans
0
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and PAU?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Mans have won 2, PAU have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Mans and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Le Mans 4-0 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Le Mans and PAU?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Mans see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Mans 23%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 15% (Le Mans) and 62% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; PAU in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Mans play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Le Mans's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Mans vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Le Mans's recent games and 62% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Mans and PAU tend to score early?
Le Mans have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, PAU in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Le Mans run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Mans beat PAU 4-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.16 xG and PAU 1.11 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Le Mans beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against PAU attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Mans 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 33%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 39%, PAU 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Mans's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.