Le Havre 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Valenciennes (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Valenciennes have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.57 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Le Havre's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 36% versus Valenciennes 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 21% | Valenciennes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.04 xG and Valenciennes 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.970 / defence 0.884 | Valenciennes attack 0.767 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Data: 14 Le Havre games / 14 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 24%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Valenciennes 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 43% | Valenciennes 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Le Havre 1.04 / Valenciennes 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.970 / def 0.884 | Valenciennes attack 0.767 / def 1.169 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Valenciennes xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Valenciennes kick off?
Le Havre vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Valenciennes?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Le Havre vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Valenciennes part of?
Le Havre vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 43% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Le Havre and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Valenciennes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.97) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.77x) against Le Havre's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.03
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.73
0.69
Valenciennes xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.69 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 6W 6D 2L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes's form line: 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.07 PPG overall record — Valenciennes travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Valenciennes away?
Le Havre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.00 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Valenciennes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
2
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Valenciennes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2023, when Le Havre 0-2 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Valenciennes?
Valenciennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 43%, Valenciennes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Le Havre and 29% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Valenciennes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Le Havre's recent matches and 43% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 29% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 15, as Le Havre and Valenciennes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.04 xG and Valenciennes 0.69 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Valenciennes attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 43% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 24%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 21%, Valenciennes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.