Le Havre 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Le Havre (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Le Havre's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Niort and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Niort 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 33% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.40 xG and Niort 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.065 / defence 0.661 | Niort attack 0.929 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Le Havre games / 61 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Le Havre 1.40 / Niort 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.065 / def 0.661 | Niort attack 0.929 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Niort xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Niort kick off?
Le Havre vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Le Havre vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Niort part of?
Le Havre vs Niort is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 55% chance of winning, Niort a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Le Havre and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Niort?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Niort in?
Le Havre (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Niort (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Niort's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.93x) against Le Havre's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
55%
1.83
29%
3.45
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.04
0.64
Niort xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
4%
24.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.64 for Niort, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 20D 15L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 18W 15D 28L from 61 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Niort have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Niort in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 20D 15L in their last 61 games (1.61 PPG), while Niort have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Niort away?
Le Havre's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.60 PPG; Niort away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Niort in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Le Havre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Niort?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 40%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Le Havre) and 47% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 30% of games; Niort in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Le Havre's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Le Havre's recent games and 47% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Niort tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.40 xG and Niort 0.64 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.06 / defence 0.66 against Niort attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.