Le Havre 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Le Havre take on Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 4D 1L at Stade Océane — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Le Havre) versus 1.70 (Ajaccio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Le Havre 41% | Ajaccio 18%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 24% | Ajaccio 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.77 xG and Ajaccio 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.867 / defence 0.923 | Ajaccio attack 0.867 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 0.971. Data: 17 Le Havre games / 17 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Ajaccio 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Le Havre's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 44% | Ajaccio 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 32% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Le Havre 0.77 / Ajaccio 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.867 / def 0.923 | Ajaccio attack 0.867 / def 0.933 | league avg home 0.955 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Ajaccio xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Ajaccio kick off?
Le Havre vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Ajaccio?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Le Havre vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Ajaccio part of?
Le Havre vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 32% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Le Havre and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Ajaccio in?
Le Havre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
36%
2.78
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.55
0.78
Ajaccio xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.2 | 16.5 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.78 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre's recent record stands at 7W 8D 2L from 17 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 3L across 17 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.71 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajaccio's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.06 scored and 0.47 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 18%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Ajaccio in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 8D 2L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Ajaccio away?
Le Havre's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.88 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Le Havre
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Ajaccio 2-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 50%, Ajaccio 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Le Havre and 12% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ajaccio in 50%; Ajaccio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Le Havre's recent matches and 25% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Le Havre's recent games and 12% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.77 xG and Ajaccio 0.78 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Ajaccio attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 32% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 18% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 24%, Ajaccio 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.71 PPG, Ajaccio 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.