Guingamp 1-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Guingamp welcome Quevilly to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Quevilly 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Quevilly 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 41% | Quevilly 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.40 xG and Quevilly 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.005 / defence 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.637 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Guingamp games / 27 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Quevilly 5.26. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 80% | Quevilly 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Guingamp 1.40 / Quevilly 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.005 / def 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.637 / def 1.404 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Quevilly xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Quevilly kick off?
Guingamp vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Guingamp vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Quevilly part of?
Guingamp vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 54% chance of winning, Quevilly a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Guingamp and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.00) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.64
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.10
0.70
Quevilly xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
5%
21.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.70 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 8W 10D 9L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.26 PPG, Quevilly on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 4W 1D 8L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.85 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Quevilly away?
Guingamp's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.54 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Guingamp
3
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 77%, Quevilly 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Guingamp) and 54% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Guingamp's games and 38% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Guingamp's recent games and 54% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Quevilly tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Quevilly share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 28, as Guingamp and Quevilly drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.40 xG and Quevilly 0.70 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Quevilly attack 0.64 / defence 1.40, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 54% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 41%, Quevilly 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.26 PPG, Quevilly 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.