Guingamp 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 0.80 PPG, PAU 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 5, PAU 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 57% | PAU 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.46 xG and PAU 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.093 / defence 1.160 | PAU attack 0.942 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.221. Data: 42 Guingamp games / 42 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | PAU 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | PAU 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | PAU 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Guingamp 1.46 / PAU 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.093 / def 1.160 | PAU attack 0.942 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.33
PAU xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Guingamp 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, PAU a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 5W | Draws 1 | PAU 3W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.09) and PAU's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.70
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.79
1.33
PAU xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for PAU, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 12D 18L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (15W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.14 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while PAU have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; PAU away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 40%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 60% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAU in 35%; Guingamp have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Guingamp's matches and 60% of PAU's.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAU in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.46 xG and PAU 1.33 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against PAU attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 27% | PAU 34%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 57%, PAU 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.14 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.