Guingamp 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Paris FC meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Guingamp. A 0.70 PPG lead over Paris FC (2.50 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Guingamp register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Paris FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Paris FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 62% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Paris FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.433 / defence 0.934 | Paris FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.000. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 40 Paris FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 4.35. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 70% | Paris FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Guingamp 1.41 / Paris FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.433 / def 0.934 | Paris FC attack 0.930 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Paris FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Paris FC kick off?
Guingamp vs Paris FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Guingamp vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Paris FC part of?
Guingamp vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 49% chance of winning, Paris FC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guingamp and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in?
Guingamp (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.93x) against Guingamp's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.51
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.28
0.87
Paris FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.87 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 17W 13D 10L from 40 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 9L across 40 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Guingamp against 1.78 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.32 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 17W 13D 10L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 20W 11D 9L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Paris FC away?
Guingamp's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.84 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Paris FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 74%, Paris FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Guingamp) and 42% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Guingamp's games and 53% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Guingamp's recent games and 42% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Paris FC tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 3, as Guingamp and Paris FC drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.41 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.43 / defence 0.93 against Paris FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 23%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Paris FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.60 PPG, Paris FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.