Guingamp 0-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.00 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Grenoble and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 65% versus Grenoble 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Grenoble 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.70 xG and Grenoble 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.277 / defence 1.412 | Grenoble attack 0.620 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.047. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Guingamp games / 20 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 56% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Grenoble 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 89% | Grenoble 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 56% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.70 / Grenoble 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.277 / def 1.412 | Grenoble attack 0.620 / def 1.357 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Grenoble xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 56% chance of winning, Grenoble a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.28) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.18
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.62
0.92
Grenoble xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
27.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.92 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.25 PPG, Grenoble on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.85 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.56 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Grenoble in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 89%, Grenoble 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guingamp) and 22% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Guingamp's games and 33% of Grenoble's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Guingamp's recent games and 22% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Grenoble finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.70 xG and Grenoble 0.92 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Grenoble landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.28 / defence 1.41 against Grenoble attack 0.62 / defence 1.36, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 56% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Grenoble 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.25 PPG, Grenoble 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.