Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Grenoble away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.00 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Grenoble and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Grenoble trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Grenoble 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 60% | Grenoble 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.23 xG and Grenoble 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.878 / defence 0.982 | Grenoble attack 0.893 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.141. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Guingamp games / 63 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 28%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Grenoble 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 20% | Grenoble 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.23 / Grenoble 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.878 / def 0.982 | Grenoble attack 0.893 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Grenoble xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 40% chance of winning, Grenoble a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 6 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Grenoble (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.88) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.12
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
Grenoble xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.00 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 26W 13D 24L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 19W 20D 24L from 63 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Grenoble on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 7W 6D 18L from 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 26W 13D 24L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 20D 24L in their last 63 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.58 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Grenoble in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 42%, Grenoble 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Guingamp) and 55% (Grenoble). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 26% of games; Grenoble in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Guingamp's recent matches and 52% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Guingamp's matches and 55% of Grenoble's.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Grenoble share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 30, as Guingamp and Grenoble drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.23 xG and Grenoble 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Grenoble attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 40% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 28%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 60%, Grenoble 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Grenoble 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.