Guingamp 3-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Boulogne travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's away record: 3W 3D 3L from 9 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.00 (Boulogne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Boulogne and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Boulogne trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 58% and Boulogne 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 68% | Boulogne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.19 xG and Boulogne 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.991 / defence 1.264 | Boulogne attack 0.833 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.177. Data: 51 Guingamp games / 17 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Boulogne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Boulogne 56%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.19 / Boulogne 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.991 / def 1.264 | Boulogne attack 0.833 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Boulogne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Boulogne kick off?
Guingamp vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Guingamp vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Boulogne part of?
Guingamp vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 35% chance of winning, Boulogne a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Boulogne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.99x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.64
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
Boulogne xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.24 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp's recent record stands at 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 10L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.37 PPG, Boulogne on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boulogne in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Boulogne away?
Guingamp's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Boulogne runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Boulogne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Boulogne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, Boulogne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guingamp) and 22% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Boulogne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 56% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Guingamp's recent games and 22% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Boulogne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Boulogne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Boulogne 3-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.19 xG and Boulogne 1.24 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Boulogne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 35% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 37%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 68%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Boulogne's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Boulogne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.