Guingamp 0-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Bordeaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 3 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Guingamp against 1.80 for Bordeaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Guingamp 1W, Bordeaux 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 61% and Bordeaux 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Bordeaux 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.27 xG and Bordeaux 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.018 / defence 1.282 | Bordeaux attack 1.126 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.059. Data: 66 Guingamp games / 28 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 43%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Bordeaux 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Guingamp 1.27 / Bordeaux 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.018 / def 1.282 | Bordeaux attack 1.126 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bordeaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Guingamp vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bordeaux part of?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 31% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Guingamp and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Bordeaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.02) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.13x) against Guingamp's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.85
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.80
1.53
Bordeaux xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.53 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 25W 21D 20L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 20W 21D 25L from 66 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Guingamp against 1.23 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (13W 9D 11L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 9W 10D 14L from 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.38 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bordeaux in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 21D 20L in their last 66 games (1.45 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 20W 21D 25L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bordeaux away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 67%, Bordeaux 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Guingamp and 70% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Guingamp's games and 61% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Guingamp's matches and 70% of Bordeaux's.
Do Guingamp and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.27 xG and Bordeaux 1.53 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against Bordeaux attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 31% | Draw 26% | Bordeaux 43%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Bordeaux 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.45 PPG, Bordeaux 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.