Guingamp 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Auxerre are 0.50 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Auxerre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Auxerre 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.19 xG and Auxerre 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.095 / defence 1.308 | Auxerre attack 0.867 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Data: 22 Guingamp games / 22 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Auxerre 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 80% | Auxerre 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Guingamp 1.19 / Auxerre 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.095 / def 1.308 | Auxerre attack 0.867 / def 1.087 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Auxerre xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Auxerre kick off?
Guingamp vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Auxerre?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Guingamp vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Auxerre part of?
Guingamp vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Auxerre a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Guingamp and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Auxerre in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.09) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.87x) against Guingamp's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.34
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.34
1.15
Auxerre xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.15 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 6W 8D 8L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 10W 7D 5L from 22 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.55 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Auxerre in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Auxerre have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Auxerre?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 80%, Auxerre 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 40% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 50%; Auxerre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guingamp's games and 40% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 40% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Auxerre tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, as Guingamp and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.19 xG and Auxerre 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.31 against Auxerre attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 34%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Auxerre 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.