Grenoble 1-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Dijon meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grenoble have posted 4W 1D 1L at Stade des Alpes — 2.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 33% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 42% | Dijon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.57 xG and Dijon 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.279 / defence 1.072 | Dijon attack 0.669 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Grenoble carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Grenoble games / 12 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 56% | Draw 27% | Dijon 17%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Dijon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Grenoble (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 33% | Dijon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 56% | Draw 27% | Dijon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Grenoble 1.57 / Dijon 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.279 / def 1.072 | Dijon attack 0.669 / def 1.353 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dijon xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Dijon kick off?
Grenoble vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Dijon?
Grenoble 1 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Grenoble vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Dijon part of?
Grenoble vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 56% chance of winning, Dijon a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Grenoble and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grenoble and Dijon in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Dijon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.28) and Dijon's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.67x) against Grenoble's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.65
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.33
0.76
Dijon xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
28.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.76 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Dijon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Grenoble against 1.08 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dijon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Dijon in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Dijon have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Dijon away?
Grenoble's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 2.60 PPG; Dijon away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dijon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grenoble
1
Draws
3
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Dijon have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 40%, Dijon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Grenoble) and 40% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Dijon in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Grenoble's recent matches and 40% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Grenoble's recent games and 40% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Dijon tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dijon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Grenoble 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Grenoble 1-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.57 xG and Dijon 0.76 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against Dijon attack 0.67 / defence 1.35, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 56% | Draw 27% | Dijon 17%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dijon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 42%, Dijon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.25 PPG, Dijon 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.