Estac Troyes 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAU at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Estac Troyes have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, PAU have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. PAU's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Estac Troyes have won 0, PAU 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Estac Troyes 1–1 PAU — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 55%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

PAU in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 65% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 58% | PAU 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.42 xG and PAU 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.152 / defence 1.262 | PAU attack 1.233 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. PAU have an above-average attack rating of 1.233, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 33 games and PAU's last 71.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 24% | PAU 46%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.35 | Draw 4.14 | PAU 2.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | PAU 70% (last 10 away games).

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