Estac Troyes 1-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Boulogne at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Boulogne's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.70 PPG versus Boulogne's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 59% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Boulogne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.55 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.498 / defence 1.048 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.169. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Estac Troyes games / 30 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 21%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Boulogne 4.76. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Estac Troyes 1.55 / Boulogne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.498 / def 1.048 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Boulogne xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Boulogne kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Boulogne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Boulogne?
Estac Troyes 1 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Boulogne part of?
Estac Troyes vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 50% chance of winning, Boulogne a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estac Troyes and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Boulogne in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Boulogne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.45
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.50
0.94
Boulogne xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
22.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.94 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 7D 7L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Estac Troyes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 13W 1D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Boulogne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 18W 7D 7L in their last 32 games (1.91 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Boulogne away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.50 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Boulogne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Boulogne runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Estac Troyes 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Boulogne?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 62%, Boulogne 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Estac Troyes) and 31% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Boulogne in 31%; Boulogne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 44% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 31% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Boulogne tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Boulogne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.55 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.50 / defence 1.05 against Boulogne attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 21%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 56%, Boulogne 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Boulogne's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.