Dunkerque 3-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dunkerque (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dunkerque face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees PAU travel to Stade Marcel Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PAU — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dunkerque are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Dunkerque have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while PAU have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Dunkerque winning.
The historical record gives Dunkerque a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 44% | PAU 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.80 xG and PAU 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.206 / defence 0.964 | PAU attack 1.026 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.181. Data: 52 Dunkerque games / 52 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 52% | Draw 23% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 4.00. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 52% | Draw 23% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Dunkerque 1.80 / PAU 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.206 / def 0.964 | PAU attack 1.026 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.17
PAU xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs PAU kick off?
Dunkerque vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Dunkerque 3 - 1 PAU.
Where is Dunkerque vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs PAU part of?
Dunkerque vs PAU is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 52% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dunkerque and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
Record (7 meetings): Dunkerque 5W | Draws 2 | PAU 0W.
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. PAU (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 1.21x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.32
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.97
1.17
PAU xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.17 for PAU, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 11D 15L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 17W 18D 17L from 52 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.71 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (16W 4D 5L).
On the road, PAU have gone 5W 11D 9L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 18D 17L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or PAU away?
Dunkerque's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 2.08 PPG; PAU away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting PAU specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Dunkerque
2
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 6, PAU have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Dunkerque 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and PAU?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 48%, PAU 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dunkerque) and 60% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Dunkerque's games and 64% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dunkerque vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Dunkerque's matches and 60% of PAU's.
Do Dunkerque and PAU tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, PAU in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat PAU 3-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.80 xG and PAU 1.17 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 52% | Draw 23% | PAU 25%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, PAU 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.71 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.