Dunkerque 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dunkerque host Le Havre at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel-Tribut: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Le Havre — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 54% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 38% | Le Havre 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.74 xG and Le Havre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.785 / defence 1.152 | Le Havre attack 0.844 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Dunkerque games / 13 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 24% | Draw 35% | Le Havre 40%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Le Havre 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 43% | Le Havre 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 24% | Draw 35% | Le Havre 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Dunkerque 0.74 / Le Havre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.785 / def 1.152 | Le Havre attack 0.844 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Le Havre xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Le Havre kick off?
Dunkerque vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Le Havre?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Dunkerque vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Le Havre part of?
Dunkerque vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 24% chance of winning, Le Havre a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dunkerque and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Le Havre in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.79) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
24%
4.10
35%
2.83
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.76
1.03
Le Havre xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 17.6 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.03 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 4D 6L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 6W 6D 1L from 13 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.08 scored and 0.54 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 6W 6D 1L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.83 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Le Havre in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
0
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Le Havre 2-1 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 33% BTTS, Le Havre 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dunkerque and 17% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Le Havre in 67%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 33% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dunkerque's recent games and 17% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.74 xG and Le Havre 1.03 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Le Havre attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 24% | Draw 35% | Le Havre 40%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Le Havre 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.